It’s been a rough stretch. Villa need to, in Emery’s words, regain their structure, find their game. Can they do it tomorrow? No idea. But it wouldn’t be a bad time.

And in acknowledgment of the broader context, my pre-match thoughts are all about how Villa find themselves where they are.

Like everyone else, I’ve been bemoaning the restrictions placed on the club, but somehow hadn’t really connected the European dots: UEFA have made it costly to clubs like Villa to be in European competition. Which really means, costly to Premier League clubs without stratospheric turnover. (Credit to Plug for posting the article that gave me the ‘aha’ insight I’d somehow missed.)

So, a conundrum: We can spend a higher ratio of turnover if we’re not in Europe, but we want to be in Europe because that’s where the glory (and some extra money) are to be found. It makes you a ‘big club’. I’ve taken that 70% limit for granted. Not really thought about that separately from just competing domestically.

It really comes down to a not-terribly complicated financial analysis that I’m ill-equipped to perform and leads to what should be an unthinkable question: Are Villa better off not being in Europe for a bit and being able to spend more on squad-building? If the recruitment’s good, we set about replacing the aging core with the younger, more ‘athletic’ players we see elsewhere, and perhaps add the depth required.

Obviously it means the club wouldn’t be able offer Champions or even Europa to prospects, but it might be a necessary reset. It might even be inevitable.

It’s natural to want to stay at the top end and I do. I like seeing us where we’ve been at. But it also means the chasing pack have more to spend. It explains, along with recent ownership changes, why our latest run has been tougher than it would’ve looked on paper. The rules right now are aimed at encouraging competition, but only amongst the also-rans.

Which brings us to a comment I made on the last post, which is that the game is a financial competition with football as the by-product. Not a novel observation by any means, but it’s really hitting home right now. A little more depth (money), a little more quality (money) or even just a little more luck and we wouldn’t be hanging on to our hopes for the season. And it hurts because I’m not just viewing this as one more exciting/disappointing season as a football fan, but as a decidedly amateur accountant trying to figure out how to balance the books with ambition.

And that really is the context of the resumption of Europa League play. There are stakes that have nothing to do with glory, silverware, or joy. We’re really talking about Villa’s paths to staying financially competitive despite having enough money. And by that we’re only saying ‘competitive enough with a brilliant manager and excellent recruiting’.

In footballing terms, yeah, it’s a game Villa need to win. We need to regain confidence and fluidity. We need to somehow see out this period without two very important players. We need to gear ourselves up mentally for the run-in. We need a result. All valid as far as the by-product goes. And on its own, whatever some think of the second-tier European competition, I’d love to see us walk away with some silverware. Which admittedly looked more likely a couple months ago than it does now.

So, it’s quite a juncture in the season, and perhaps in Villa’s arc beyond next season. I know I’m going to be edgy and for more reasons than the football itself. Emery will never admit to prioritizing anything more than the league, but one wonders if the defining choice of his tenure to date will be him relying on his tournament genius to keep us in the bigger overall hunt.

Over to you.